UK maps point to 18c on 5 November for Bonfire Night: will you ditch your coat for the fireworks?

Fresh model maps hint at a brief, timely lift in temperatures as November begins, setting up milder conditions for outdoor plans.

Maps flag an 18c window on 5 November

Weather visualisations from WXCharts indicate a notable warm pocket building over eastern and south-eastern England on Tuesday 5 November. East Anglia sits at the heart of the signal, with parts of Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex nudging 18C for a few hours during the afternoon. That timing lines up with Bonfire Night, raising the prospect of a rare T-shirt moment before dusk.

Forecast charts point to 18C in East Anglia on 5 November, with large swathes of England sitting in the mid-teens.

London and the Home Counties look close behind on 16–17C. Kent, Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire show similar mid-teen values. Western counties run cooler under thicker cloud and a fresher Atlantic breeze, so the warmth will not blanket the whole country.

Where the mild spell is set to land

The core of the warmth focuses on eastern and central England, where lighter winds and breaks in cloud allow November sunshine to do more work. The east-facing coastline from north Essex to north Norfolk could hold on to 15–17C into late afternoon if the breeze stays gentle off the land.

Further west, the air turns cooler and more humid. Cornwall and Devon trend closer to 13–15C, with the far north-west of England likely cooler still. Cumbria’s higher ground could struggle to reach double figures if cloud thickens.

What the Met Office guidance says

The Met Office long-range guidance for 30 October to 8 November keeps expectations in check. It points to an unsettled start, with low pressure near the UK delivering rain bands and pulses of gusty wind, particularly in the west. Between those systems, brighter and drier slots appear, and that is where temperatures lift above the seasonal norm for a time.

Expect changeable weather, wet spells and breezier interludes in the west, balanced by milder, brighter breaks in the east.

That pattern supports a short-lived, mild window around 5 November rather than days of continuous warmth. It also means details may shuffle as new data arrives.

How it could feel on Bonfire Night

If the 18C zone verifies, early evening in the east and south-east could feel unusually mild for the date. Average maximums at this time of year sit closer to 11–12C in the south-east and 9–10C in northern England. A 16–18C afternoon therefore feels springlike, especially away from a breeze.

Ground conditions may still run damp after prior rain, and smoke from displays tends to linger on calm, mild nights. That brings comfort and air quality considerations for families, pet owners and those with breathing sensitivities.

Practical pointers if you’re heading out

Layer smart: a light jumper and windproof jacket beat a thick coat if you are active and it stays 14–18C.
Footwear first: fields may be soft underfoot after rain, even if it feels mild.
Watch the wind: a subtle sea breeze along the east coast can knock a couple of degrees off perceived temperature.
Mind the smoke: milder, still evenings can trap smoke near ground level; pick an upwind spot if possible.
Pets plan: the warmth helps for walks, but noise stress remains; prepare safe indoor spaces.

Why temperatures are likely to vary

This setup often relies on a brief feed of milder air from the south or south-east, squeezed between Atlantic lows to the west and a ridge to the east. Eastern counties cash in when winds turn light and skies open. Western and upland areas under thicker cloud and passing rain remain cooler.

Small shifts in wind direction or cloud cover on the day can move the 17–18C zone by 30–50 miles. That is why local detail matters more than a single map snapshot.

Region-by-region snapshot for 5 November

Region	Likely daytime highs	Notes
East Anglia (Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex)	16–18C	Warmest signal; best in early-mid afternoon with sunny breaks
London and outer Home Counties	16–17C	Mild, breezy at times; urban heat may lift evening feel
Kent, Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire	15–17C	Dry slots likely; a gentle onshore breeze shaves the coast
Midlands	14–16C	Cloud amounts drive the spread; pleasant if sunny
Yorkshire, north-east England	13–15C	Sunnier breaks feel comfortable out of the wind
Merseyside, Lancashire	13–14C	Cloudier and breezier; short brighter interludes
Cumbria	9–12C	Coolest on hills; patchy drizzle possible
Devon, Cornwall	13–15C	Atlantic influence keeps temperatures modest

How long could the mild patch last?

Signals favour a transient lift rather than a week-long spell. Low pressure looks keen to return either side of 5 November, renewing showers or longer rain, especially in the west and north-west. Eastern England still sees windows of calmer weather, but confidence drops on exact timing beyond 2–3 days out.

Computer guidance often adjusts the shape and timing of these warm plumes within 48 hours. Keep an eye on your local forecast the day before events for the most useful hour-by-hour detail.

Extra context you can use

What ‘Indian summer’ usually means in Britain

The term is widely used for a warm spell after the first chilly snaps of autumn. Some meteorologists reserve it for settled, sunny weather after the first frost. Others apply it more loosely to any late-season warmth. Either way, 16–18C in early November sits clearly above average for much of England, which explains the buzz.

Why this matters for daily life

Milder air in early November can trim heating use for a night or two, improve conditions for last garden jobs, and help outdoor events land more comfortably. The trade-off often comes with showers either side of the mild slot, so plan flexible timings and routes. Drivers should also watch for evening fog if skies clear after rain; fireworks smoke can make thin fog thicker near open fields and river valleys.